Colorado’s Over/Under at 6.5 Wins: Will Kaidon Salter and Deion Sanders Deliver?

Colorado Buffaloes head coach Deion Sanders took replacing his son, Shedeur, seriously. First, Sanders managed to flip five-star recruit Julian “JuJu” Lewis from USC to Colorado. Two weeks after landing Lewis, he convinced Kaidon Salter, the 2023 Conference USA MVP and starting quarterback for Liberty University, to don the black and gold in Boulder. Perhaps the void left by Shedeur can be filled, and the Buffs can win more than half of their games (Vegas has them at 6.5 wins).

Sports Analyst Mark Ingram is convinced.

“I’m going over because I have faith in Deion,” Ingram said. “They’re gonna get this thing together. Let’s just be honest, though. What is 6.5? I say six, seven wins. I think that’s a good season for them right now. You lost Shedeur. You lost Travis Hunter, arguably the best player in college football recently. They’ve hit the transfer portal. They went and got a quarterback. They’re trying to shore up this offensive line. They were last in sacks per game last year. So it’s a lot of things that have to go right. But I think with the coaching staff, with the players, with the mindset and the strategy that Deion has, I feel like they gonna get this thing going.”

If Ingram is correct, it’ll start with the quarterback position. Following Spring practices, the picture didn’t become any clearer as to who will be the signal caller come Week 1. Salter, a senior in his final year of eligibility, is likely the Week 1 starter, but it’s still neck and neck at this point.

Salter’s career stats at Liberty tell a tale of two tales.

Salter accounted for 6,438 total yards of offense and 66 touchdowns during his two seasons in Liberty coach Jamey Chadwell's spread option system. He rushed for 1,676 yards, second among FBS quarterbacks behind Army's Bryson Daily (2,433).

But when you break things down, it starts to look bleak. Salter shined in 2023, leading Liberty to a perfect regular season and a Conference USA title. But in 2024, when he was asked to transition to a pocket-passing role, his production dropped dramatically.

In 2023, Salter led the first perfect regular season in Liberty history while throwing a school-record 32 touchdown passes. The Flames won the Conference USA title in their first season in the league and earned a New Year's Six bowl bid in the Fiesta Bowl against Oregon. (We’ll get back to the Oregon game in a minute).

In 2024, things changed.

Last season, Salter showed a decline in every statistical category. Salter threw for 1,886 yards, rushed for 587 yards and scored 22 total touchdowns for the Flames during an 8-3 run this past season. That’s about 1,000 less passing yards and about half as much rushing yards and total touchdowns as 2023. His pass completion average also took a significant dip, even though his yards per pass attempt went from 9.9 to 7.2.

Perhaps the numbers don’t tell the whole story. Salter is at his best when acting as a dual-threat quarterback. In 2024, head coach Jamey Chadwell wanted Salter to work on becoming a pocket-passer rather than relying on his legs to make plays. With those changes, the Flames went from a perfect 13-0 season to an 8-3 record. Many had projected Liberty to be the Group of 5 CFP entrant prior to the start of the season.

In order to get the most out of Salter, Deion will have to give Salter the green light to use his legs, when needed. Even then, it may not be enough. Remember that Oregon game? Well, that was the first time Salter saw top talent on the field, and he looked woefully inferior. He threw for only 125 yards and ran for a dismal 26 yards, throwing one touchdown. The Flames got flamed 45-6, where after Liberty’s opening touchdown, the Ducks went on a 45-0 run.

Last year’s Colorado team was a two-trick pony with a Heisman winner and a legend who already has had his jersey retired and they still came up painfully short against legitimate competition. This year, if Deion only has a single trick up his sleeve, they may not make it beyond that 6.5 mark, no matter how much faith Ingram has in Coach Prime.